Timely decisions in an uncertain environment

Today's for profit organizations operate in a fast paced environment of conflict, uncertainty, instability, malleability, disorder, and information overload.  Managing against this backdrop requires rapid decision making, often in situations where not all of the information needed is available.  Managing in this ambiguous arena requires the ability to get to the essence of an issue quickly.

Most people are not comfortable making important decisions until they have all of their "ducks in a row."  This is quite normal and it's a behavior that keeps us from taking undue risks.  The problem that we face in the modern business environment is that we need to take calculated risks and in doing so, we need to make decisions with some of the information that's needed missing.  The U.S. Marine Corps , which has a history of moving quickly and decisively, has a philosophy called "the 70% solution."  It's been put to practice in the business world with a credible pattern of success.  The 70% solution is essentially making an imperfect decision now rather than waiting for the perfect solution (which doesn't exist).  This is done in an atmosphere where not all of the information is available, but of the information that is available, an actionable plan that has a good chance of working can be developed and implemented.  Don't mistake this for "shooting from the hip" or a cavalier decision making process, it just removes the need to make a perfect decision based on 100% of the information needed being available.

In business, the 70% solution can be used in marketing, product design, new product implementation, software design, strategic planning, project management, and on and on.  Where it can't be used is in quality control where specifications and tolerances can't be breached.  There is no "perfect" decision, there will always be variables that are fluid, essentially moving targets.  Organizations and managers who chase these moving targets will invariably lengthen the decision making process unduly and will put themselves at a competitive disadvantage vis-á-vis those firms than can make decisions more rapidly.  In order to have a greater business velocity than your competitors, you'll have to accept a greater degree of uncertainty. 

The key to making decisions in an ambiguous environment is simplicity; breaking down complex and sometimes confusing concepts and ideas and getting to the essence, or core, of the notion.  If the essence is defined and clear, then everything else is superfluous.  With the essence clear, there is far more room for flexibility in tactics and strategy.  As long as the actions support the essence of what is being done, then ideas that aren't explicit early on in the plan can be entertained.  This helps managers and organizations to change course when tactics aren't working out and need to be modified.  Changing circumstances require the ability to make quick course corrections. 

Even when the action is happening in real time and speed becomes necessary, decisions can be made within the framework of a process.  A basic SWOT analysis can be quickly put together, even as a tabletop exercise.  A SWOT analysis involves the identification of your strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats.  You must then determine your assumptions and the veracity of your assumptions; do your assumptions make sense and do they match the playing field and conditions?  You need to determine what the parameters of the engagement are.  The best way to do this is by exception - what is out of bounds and can't be breached under any circumstance?  Most of the time these constraining factors will be budgetary issues, resources (or lack of resources), and policies/regulations.  If you define the parameters this way, then everything else not explicitly forbidden is permissible - again, flexibility being the goal.  After all is said and done, there needs to be a concerted effort to think through anything that's being left out of the decision.